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changingHow the China effect keeps a rein on interest rate level
By Graham Cox
Published: December 19 2005 02:00 | Last updated: December 19 2005 02:00
From Mr Graham Cox.
Sir, Martin Wolf ("The world begins to feel the dragon's breath on its back", December 14) pulls together analysis from various parties of how enormous, fundamental and multi-faceted is the growing impact of the Chinese economy on the world. The explanation quoted of why interest rates are depressed is rather indirect, though. Yes, patterns of savings are being modified with a probable net increase in savings influencing interest rates; but this is hard to prove on a global scale.
In practice, interest rates are driven more directly anyway by what central banks decide. It is here that the missing and simple explanation lies. The Federal Reserve has calculated that approximately 1 percentage point per annum has been knocked off the inflation rate by the China effect.
The arithmetic is simple. As long as China and other emerging economies keep increasing their exports to the developed counties substantially, inflation in the importing countries will be depressed. As a result, central banks can maintain target inflation rates with a lower level of interest rates. By the same token, any significant slackening in the rate of increase of these exports will lead to a tendency to higher interest rates.
The graph of exports from these countries and in particular its rate of change should be as closely watched as statistics of any interest rate driver, but for some reason is not, and it hardly makes an appearance in the financial media.
Искала фр версию теории ЛяВьолетт о происхождении Вселенной, а нашла http://www.karmapolis.be/pipeline/matrix.htm ребят, которые заявляют, что материальный мир - голограмма, а наш мозг работает как призма, на которую эту голограмму прецитуют. Ещё они говорят о том, что све религии и науки созданы "агентами Смитами", направляющими наше сознание. Я когда читаю подобные вещи, всегда думаю: ага, и ты решил в этот мир новое верование принести :) на кого работаешь? на те же сверхсущества, которых обвиняешь? :))) какое новое самосознание в нас формируют и с какой целью? очередной байкой массового бредогенератора ко(р)мите, чтобы отвлечь нас от главного? ;)
Хотя может я просто слишком рано сдаюсь, и мировой заговор не иллюзия? :)))
By Graham Cox
Published: December 19 2005 02:00 | Last updated: December 19 2005 02:00
From Mr Graham Cox.
Sir, Martin Wolf ("The world begins to feel the dragon's breath on its back", December 14) pulls together analysis from various parties of how enormous, fundamental and multi-faceted is the growing impact of the Chinese economy on the world. The explanation quoted of why interest rates are depressed is rather indirect, though. Yes, patterns of savings are being modified with a probable net increase in savings influencing interest rates; but this is hard to prove on a global scale.
In practice, interest rates are driven more directly anyway by what central banks decide. It is here that the missing and simple explanation lies. The Federal Reserve has calculated that approximately 1 percentage point per annum has been knocked off the inflation rate by the China effect.
The arithmetic is simple. As long as China and other emerging economies keep increasing their exports to the developed counties substantially, inflation in the importing countries will be depressed. As a result, central banks can maintain target inflation rates with a lower level of interest rates. By the same token, any significant slackening in the rate of increase of these exports will lead to a tendency to higher interest rates.
The graph of exports from these countries and in particular its rate of change should be as closely watched as statistics of any interest rate driver, but for some reason is not, and it hardly makes an appearance in the financial media.
Искала фр версию теории ЛяВьолетт о происхождении Вселенной, а нашла http://www.karmapolis.be/pipeline/matrix.htm ребят, которые заявляют, что материальный мир - голограмма, а наш мозг работает как призма, на которую эту голограмму прецитуют. Ещё они говорят о том, что све религии и науки созданы "агентами Смитами", направляющими наше сознание. Я когда читаю подобные вещи, всегда думаю: ага, и ты решил в этот мир новое верование принести :) на кого работаешь? на те же сверхсущества, которых обвиняешь? :))) какое новое самосознание в нас формируют и с какой целью? очередной байкой массового бредогенератора ко(р)мите, чтобы отвлечь нас от главного? ;)
Хотя может я просто слишком рано сдаюсь, и мировой заговор не иллюзия? :)))
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no subject
Date: 2005-12-19 01:12 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-12-19 01:15 pm (UTC)Хорошая идея! А что на Елисейских?
no subject
Date: 2005-12-19 01:19 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-12-19 01:22 pm (UTC)Я поддержу идею прогулки по ночному проспекту - оч это люблю!
no subject
Date: 2005-12-19 01:23 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-12-19 01:24 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-12-19 01:25 pm (UTC)